lunes, noviembre 12, 2012

El huracán Sandy y el cambio climático

Publicado en noviembre 7 de 2012

En junio de 1988 se realizó en Toronto (Canadá) el Congreso “Evolución de la atmosfera: implicaciones para la seguridad del globo”. Sus conclusiones: “La humanidad adelanta -sin  intención- una experiencia mundial incontrolada (con el clima) cuyas consecuencias pueden ser del orden de magnitud de una guerra nuclear global”. Los científicos recomendaron en ese momento reducir las emisiones de bióxido de carbono, uno de los gases de invernadero; hoy sabemos que hay otros gases implicados. Desde esos años 80, diferentes  informes científicos han confirmado las preocupaciones expresadas en el Congreso de Toronto.
Efectivamente, el actual cambio climático podría llevarnos a catástrofes -en verdad- apocalípticas. Recordaba en anteriores columnas como muchas extinciones globales de especies (ocurridas antes de la aparición humana) fueron ocasionadas por cambios climáticos extremos.

De ahí que los efectos catastróficos del huracán Sandy revivieron la polémica existente entre los llamados escépticos del cambio climático (algunos apoyados por multinacionales energéticas tradicionales) y los científicos independientes, cuyos informes son cada vez más alarmantes. Algunos analistas consideran que Sandy no es un producto del calentamiento global; hay que recordar que los huracanes existen desde “siempre”, la palabra huracán tiene raíces en lenguas indígenas del Caribe.

Sin embargo,  otros han señalado que factores asociados al cambio climático -como el calentamiento y el incremento del nivel de los océanos-  potenciaron el fenómeno y agravaron sus efectos catastróficos. Es lo que el profesor George Lakoff (profesor distinguido de Universidades de California y Harvard) llama causas sistémicas, diferentes a las causas directas.

Sandy azotó Estados Unidos en vísperas de las elecciones que se realizaron ayer en ese país, que enfrentaba dos posiciones sobre el tema. Por un lado, el presidente Obama que favorece el desarrollo de energías alternativas; su propuesta busca crear cinco millones de empleos verdes en diez años. Mientras que el republicano Romney hace chistes sobre el calentamiento global.

Por lo mismo el alcalde de Nueva York decidió apoyar a Obama “Por su compromiso en el combate contra el cambio climático”. Para el alcalde Bloomberg, desastres parecidos a Sandy “Nunca habían pasado en nuestra ciudad”. Por lo anterior y otras razones esperamos que ayer haya ganado Obama.

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